nds to return to London to skate with the K

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nds to return to London to skate with the K

Postprzez lw789 » 15 wrz 2018, o 00:55

The National Hockey League’s scheduling process strikes me as a laborious task. The people responsible for creating the thirty team schedules have to take into account things like venue availability, travel burden, associated costs of travel, and competitive balance, all while trying to squeeze 1,230 games into a seven-month window. One of the things I’ve always found most interesting is how the league attempts to mitigate the number of back-to-back situations (not so eloquently referred to as “schedule losses” in NHL and NBA circles), a considerable slice of the league’s larger fight with competitive balance. To the league’s credit, Dirk Hoag’s work suggests that the league does try to schedule a comparable number of back-to-back situations for every franchise. Now, the eyeball test has long been damning of team performance on the second-half of back-to-backs, and I think that’s largely why the league has really made a concerted effort to balance the number of schedule losses around the league. The data substantiates what the eyeball test has told us for so long – teams on no rest struggle considerably relative to league norms, considerably so when those back-to-backs come on the road. Seven years of available data substantiates what the eyeball test has told us for so long – teams on no rest struggle considerably relative to league norms. Below, I have compiled Score-Adjusted Fenwick%, 5-on-5 Goal%, and Regulation/OT Win% for teams in back-to-back situations. They are slotted next to your league-average rates, to illustrate the drop-off between the two. (Score-Adjusted Fenwick% is a measure of 5-on-5 unblocked shot attempts, weighted for score, comparing results to league averages based on game score.) The Value of Rest Score-Adjusted Fenwick% Goal% Regulation/OT Win% Back-to-Back Home 51.0% 51.0% 53.0% All Home 52.0% 52.0% 56.0% Back-to-Back Road 47.0% 46.0% 41.0% All Road 48.0% 49.0% 44.0% So, teams without rest against teams with rest of ranging length are going to underperform – we see a three percentage drop-off in regulation/overtime win percentage for both home and road teams, which really is the smoking gun. It’s also hard to miss that possession and goal metrics slide in both states, too. Home teams drop a full percentage point on both fronts. Road teams drop a percentage point in possession rates, and three percentage points in goal rates. But, back-to-back situations – or “schedule losses” -- aren’t the only instance where a team is disadvantaged. The theory isn’t just that teams devoid of rest are at a disadvantage. It’s that teams disproportionately rested to the opposition are at a disadvantage, in which back-to-back situations are only a small part of a large sample. Let’s change gears and turn to rest differentials. We can pull data for how teams perform with three days favorable rest, two days favorable rest, one day favorable rest, and so forth. If our theory holds true, performance – be it by possession rates, goal rates, or win rates – should deteriorate as rest becomes less advantageous, and travel becomes more frequent. Over the same seven years of data, here’s how home teams performed over various rest differentials. Home Team Rest Advantage 2007-2014 Rest Advantage Score-Adjusted Fenwick% Goal% Regulation/OT Win% 3 or more day deficit 50.9% 48.3% 52.3% 2-day deficit 51.1% 50.6% 54.9% 1-day deficit 51.6% 51.9% 54.2% Even 51.3% 52.0% 55.3% One-day advantage 52.1% 53.4% 58.9% Two-day advantage 52.6% 54.0% 58.3% 3 or more day advantage 51.9% 51.7% 51.6% I think this graph is about as telling as it gets. As you increase a home team’s rest advantage, their possession rates, goal rates, and win rates all spike. The inverse, of course, is true for road teams – as they see rest become more unfavourable, possession rates decline, goal rates decline, and win rates decline. Again, this gets very much back to what our eyes tell us – that teams who have rest advantages generally play a better hockey game, and teams that are fatigued generally play a worse hockey game. More importantly, it signifies that not all games are created equal. A home team with a two-game rest disadvantage is only expected to control 51.09% of the play, 50.58% of the 5-on-5 goals, and win 54.87% of the games. A home team with a two-game rest advantage should be held to significantly higher standards: on average, they should control 52.64% of play, score 54.04% of the goals, and win 58.25% of the hockey games. It seems certain to me that the league would be privy to this sort of data and reluctant to put teams into positions where they are regularly at a rest disadvantage, but it’s still an important topic that should be considered when forecasting future outcomes. Rightfully, analysts spend a lot of time talking up the importance of home-ice advantage – the data bears this advantage out. However, this data suggests that rest is another critical, albeit less appreciated, factor for teams and associated performance. Youth Vikings Jerseys . Although Spain could still advance out of the group stage, the game may have signalled the end of the run by a generation of Spanish stars whose quick passing, "tiki-taka" style delighted the world and helped them win the last three major tournaments. Colby Gossett Jersey . The result was a game-winning, power-play goal. 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"Things are going, things are progressing," said Bolland. "Not as quickly as I wish they were, but things are progressing." Coach Randy Carlyle suggested last Thursday that there was a 50-50 chance Bolland could return prior to the Olympic break, but with just two games remaining for the Leafs before the two week hiatus, nothing is set in stone. "Well see," Bolland said when asked if a return before the break was a possibility. "Things are progressing, so well see how they go." At this point, Bollands biggest limitations occur in transition when he is required to change directions abruptly. "Its crossing over, getting on that ankle, putting weight on it and stressing that tendon," Bolland explained. "Thats the biggest thing, the transition in the game when youre going down on a three on two and the puck gets poked off your stick and you have to go back the other way, that quick transition of turning on a dime and getting back. Its that tendon that you have to use to turn and progress off that. Its getting stronger, its getting there but its just not elevating like I want it to." Now over three full months since the injury occurred, Bolland is still resigned to the fact that he will experience pain in the ankle, likely forr several more months to come.dddddddddddd "You feel pain, you feel stress, and I did cut a tendon so it went right through the muscle, right through the tendon, right through everything, almost down to the bone," he said. "Im going to feel pain; its going to be like that for the rest of this year and maybe some of the summer." Whether he returns or not in the next two games, Bolland will not be taking the Olympic break off. Instead, he intends to return to London to skate with the Knights, his former junior club and continue wearing the new skate boot that he had custom designed to support his injury. "Ill have to use that new skate for a while, probably for the rest of my career," said Bolland. "Ive got a big bulge on the side of my ankle that sticks out, bigger than my other ankle so its going to be with me for the rest of my life. Ill probably use that skate until Im done." An unrestricted free agent this summer, the injury has prevented Bolland from raising his stock with a solid year, playing in just 15 games to this point. More concerned with getting back into the line up than worrying about a new contract, he indicated that his past resume should speak for itself. "I dont know if Im missing anything, I think in the past few years Ive won two Stanley Cups," said Bolland. "Ive been to the finals and know what its like to get there; Ive been through those battles so I dont think this should hinder any kind of contract. I think they know what I do and what kind of heart I have out there." 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